Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Unheard of...

Yesterday, I learned from my buyers' lender at Bank of America that the appraisal for the home that they have under agreement came in almost 100K below the contract sales price.  Now, I have heard of appraisals coming in lower than the contract price, but never this much lower.  Obviously, this is a problem. 

We have begun the necessary steps to have the appraisal reviewed but my main concern is that the appraiser is from Lowell MA and although licensed in NH, I would be willing to bet that he rarely (if ever) does appraisal work in Exeter NH.  The comparables that he used in the appraisal weren't even close to the subject in quality, size or location.  The key word here is location because the property that my buyers want to buy is located in that "magic" Phillips Exeter Academy radius making it very desirable and good also for re-sale down the road.  Probably, we should have been tipped off when the first words out of his mouth when he entered the property were, "Is this an REO or short sale?"

Hopefully, we will be able to resolve this issue between having the appraisal reviewed and perhaps having to renegotiate the purchase price.  We shall see.

 

 

Posted via email from New Hampshire Home

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

327 Margaret Street Key West FL

     I have had my eye on this 4 unit property on Margaret Street in Key West for some time now.  It has been on the market at least since last November when I viewed it with my Key West agent, Suzanne Washburn of Coldwell Banker Schmitt.  Back then the price was $729,000, which I felt was much too high.  Recently, the seller dropped the price to $499K and subsequently, the property went under contract.  Fortunately, for me, not for the seller, it came back on the market when inspection issues caused the deal to go south. 

 

     I love the location of this property and feel strongly that now it is priced correctly and is a good value somewhere between 400K and 500K.  I only hope that it will still be available for me to purchase when I can get my NH home under agreement.

Posted via email from New Hampshire Home

Friday, November 02, 2007

A Real Life Example

It really is amazing to see what effect more than one buyer can have.

Late summer last year, I had a condo listed that was overpriced by about 5K (something that I have vowed to do no longer). The owners had bought it in 2005 and had paid too much for it. They never used the condo (impulse buy?) and it was draining them month by month. They did not care to rent it and have a tenant ruin it. Feeling bad about their plight I took the listing. We had very little activity but I did pick up some good buyers at 2 open houses there.

As a last ditch effort, I recommended that they try a lease purchase to at least stop the negative cash flow. They refused to take a loss on the condo so I added the lease purchase option to the MLS listing. That following weekend, I had two interested parties for the lease purchase. They knew about the existence of each other but that was all. The first party agreed to all my sellers' terms and offered their full price. The second party offered full price as well and offered to pay $200 month extra toward the buyers' escrow account. The sellers decided to have me ask the first buyer to put down an additional 3K toward the escrow account and up his monthly escrow deposit by $200, pay all utilities and an additional $100 per month in rent. He agreed and became their lease/purchase tenant.

Little did I think that my sellers would be able to secure the rent they wanted for the condo, never mind a full price offer. This all happened prior to my conversion to "energy" pricing as the solution to selling in a depreciating market, but it is a great example of what will happen when people perceive that they cannot have what they want.

"Energy" Pricing

As I mentioned in the previous post, in a depreciating market a home seller cannot afford to overprice his property and then wait because by the time he lowers the price, the market may have already slid further than his new price point.

The concept of "energy" pricing (sometimes called "drama" pricing) entails finding the price point which generates the most excitement and energy about a property. It's the kind of price that causes sellers to say "Ouch" and the buyers to say "Wow". The goal of "energy" pricing is to generate the greatest number of buyers viewing the property in the shortest amount of time and then to have more than one buyer interested in the property thereby driving the price higher than asking sometimes as much as 10% higher. How can this be in a "bad market"? Because when buyers perceive value, they are prepared to step up to the plate and offer what the property is truly worth. After all, it is the buyers who determine what a property is worth, not the sellers. Buyers will sense the energy and excitement surrounding the property and will want what they can't have. This happens all the time in "hot" markets, but it can be created in "soft" markets as well. With the drama price, all the buyers' attention is drawn to the particular property and it will generate enough buyer interest to set up the best scenario for the seller to have a multiple offer situation. Adding the element of sealed bids from buyers may even increase the potential net to the seller.

Here is a typical scenario:

Mr Smith has a 3 bedroom 2 bathroom ranch on 1 acre. It has been updated nicely and has good curb appeal. There are 5 other comparable ranches in the same town with similar characteristics that are currently listed at 250k, 255K, 259K, 260K and 262K. These are the homes that are "not selling". In other words, if the property is not under agreement or sold, then it is a property that is "not selling". By pricing his ranch at 237K, Mr. Smith will drive the buyer pool to his property. His real estate agent, familiar with energy pricing and depreciating markets, lists the home on Monday. She plans to hold a broker open house on Thursday and a 2 day weekend open house. After listing, there are 4 showings of the property, with 2 repeat showings and one offer submitted on Wednesday. The offer on Wednesday is 5,000 below asking and has no deadline. Mr. Smith's agent advises him to wait until after the open house to consider the offer since his property has not yet had its "full week in the sun", in other words, all the potential buyers have not yet had a chance to view the property. Mr. Smith, of course, can accept the first offer if he chooses. He decides to wait. At the broker open house, agents coming through comment that the price is amazing and more appointments are set and some will be bring buyers to the open house over the weekend. At the two day open house, 10 sets of buyers come through on Saturday and 8 sets on Sunday. Two buyers on Saturday request to make offers. At multiple times during the open house, buyers are hearing other buyers' comments and requests to make offers. Some buyers are calling their own agents to ask about making an offer. By Monday, Mr. Smith has received 4 offers plus the one from earlier in the week. His agent goes over the offers with him one by one. Notice how in this situation, the buyer is in control. He has his pick of offers. His agent tells him that he has several options; he can choose one of the offers on the table, or he can ask the agent to advise all parties that they are now in a multiple offer situation and he would like them to submit their last and best offer by noon the next day. One buyer withdraws his offer, he had been hoping to get it below asking. The first offer has removed contingencies and is offering full price with only an inspection and financing contingency. Mr. Smith has one offer for 240K with only a financing contingency and he can close in 30 days. Another offer is for 242K with inspection and financing contingency. The last offer is for 245K with only a financing contingency, closing in 30 days or less. All buyers have pre-approval letters as well. Mr. Smith decides to choose the last offer if the buyer will put up an additional 2K in earnest money deposit. The property closes in 27 days for 245K, a full 8K above Mr. Smith's asking price.

The 5 comparable ranches are still sitting there. Two of them have lowered their prices by 5K and the others are unchanged. Another month of carrying costs for the sellers, perhaps 2 mortgage payments if they bought something else already. Another month of taxes, interest, insurance.....well, you get the picture. Did the buyer for Mr. Smith's house get cheated? Of course not, since he still got the house for 5K below the next comparable ranch. Without the perception of value, the buyer would not have moved forward with his offer. He saw the competition and saw that Mr. Smith's house was just as nice if not nicer and was certainly worth 245K in his mind. Did Mr. Smith lose out? Could he have gotten more? A property will sell for the most money in the first 2 weeks of exposure in a depreciating market. The longer is sits in inventory, the less likely the seller is to have a multiple offer situation and the more likely the seller will have to cut his price as his most important asset loses value day by day. With a knowledgeable professional to represent his best interests, Mr. Smith cannot lose. Nor can the agent. Because of her approach, market knowledge and negotiating expertise, she was able to net Mr. Smith top dollar for the property in the shortest amount of time. Remember that top dollar is not what the sellers "needs" to get for the property, but what the best buyer is willing to pay.

And what will Mr. Smith tell others of his experience. "What a fabulous agent! I love energy pricing! I'm off to Florida to find a great deal because I heard the market is really bad down there. My agent referred me to an agent down there who will help me get "tomorrow's prices today". You should really talk to her and try energy pricing for your home."

Helping sellers find out what their home is worth, managed in a careful and controlled way is the sign of a true professional. No amount of advertising, marketing, signage, open houses, 4-color flyers, direct mail post cards etc. will help an over-priced property to sell. The property will sell when the agent and the seller find the price point which generates the perception of value.

Monday, October 29, 2007

How to sell your home in a depreciating market

Yes, it's official. It's been a "buyer's" market since late 2005. How do we know we are in a depreciating market? Well, besides hearing it all over the media and learning from friends and colleagues that they have not been able to sell their homes, there is a more accurate way of measuring what the market is doing.

By tracking inventory of homes for sale, one can accurately predict a trend which indicates an appreciating or depreciating market. The determining factor for either of these markets is INVENTORY. When there are three consecutive months with more homes coming on the market than going off, it is a depreciating market and prices have to come down. When there are three consecutive months with more homes coming off the market and than coming on, it is an appreciating market and prices have to go up. It's all about supply and demand. It's the supply that controls the demand and not the demand that controls the supply.

How did we get into this situation anyway? There are numerous contributing factors, but at some point, inventory hit a "tipping point", where new listings began out-pacing sold listings. We certainly couldn't expect 10-12 % yearly appreciation in real estate forever, could we? What does a person do with an asset that is losing value? They unload it. What does a person do with an asset that is gaining in value? They hold onto it. With news everywhere we turn telling us over and over about the "bubble", inventory sitting longer and longer on the market while new listings are constantly joining them and the correct perception among property owners that their most important asset is losing value or about to lose value, more and more homeowners figured they would cash out now rather than face getting less for their homes later on. Problem is...those sellers just assumed that they could still get the inflated price that their home would have commanded two years ago and they were prepared to sit tight until they got that price.

In an appreciating market, it's ok to price your home slightly higher than "market value" and then just wait because eventually market prices do catch up to that price. However, in a depreciating market with so much competition out there, pricing your property above market value can be the death nail. Why? The longer one's property sits unsold in a depreciating market the more value it loses. Sellers are told by their agents to lower the price but they always seem to be one step behind the market slide and the property becomes "stale".

A real estate professional should know exactly what the market is doing. He or she must be aware of all factors that may adversely affect the sale of property. An excellent real estate agent should not tell you what your home is worth but rather help you find out what your property is worth. So, that is all well and good, but exactly how is this done?

In my next blog, I will explain step by step how to create the energy and excitement to drive buyer traffic through your property and to help create the perception of value necessary in order to lead to one or more offers from the interested parties. Myself and two of my colleagues will be offering a class in our office at 601 Central Ave in Dover, NH on Nov 7th from 7-8pm to attempt to educate the public on the process as well. It is a bold move as no one else in real estate in this area besides our company has agents willing to tell their sellers the truth about the market and what they need to do to sell their home now and for full price plus 10%. Stay tuned.

Friday, October 19, 2007

There aren't any buyers out there!

This common expression can be heard day after day in many local real estate offices including ours. "I need some buyers to work with" "Do you have any buyers?" "Where are all the buyers?" In "good markets", there is the perception that there are lots of buyers out there and conversely, in "bad markets", the perception is that there are no or few buyers in the market.

My real estate company, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, owned by NRT, Inc, has been pro-active enough to offer training to all its agents on the most effective approach in a depreciating market. This seminar was presented by Jay Schweppe who owned his own company in Montclair, NJ and sold to NRT. He made lots of money selling in down markets as well as up markets using the approach that he presents in his seminars. Many agents will say that this particular approach would not work in their area, but the fact is that this method works in every market in every location without fail.

The reality is that the "Buyer Pool" remains relatively constant in all markets. The variable is whether or not the buyers are perceiving value. When there is a perception of value, buyers act. Without this perception, buyers will wait. They are still buyers but not prepared to act until someone creates that perception. Of course, interest rates can alter the size of the buyer pool somewhat, and job losses can shift the buyer pool from one area of the country to another. Often times, buyer pools will shift to areas of the country where real estate is deemed a value causing that particular local market to appreciate. In actuality, almost anyone could be a potential buyer at any time.

If I stood on a very busy street corner with my newer MacBook and shouted out or held a sign up asking anyone to give me $1,000 for my laptop, chances are, I would not have any interested parties because most would know full well that they could buy a brand new one for just slightly over my asking price. There would be no perception of value amongst those buyers. However, if I stood on the same corner with the same MacBook and asked if there were someone willing to give me $100 for my fully functional laptop, chances are that several if not many people would step up to buy. When there is more than one interested buyer, that interest and perception of value, will cause those buyers to increase their offer up to a certain point (what they feel it is truly worth).

The same is true for real estate. Buyers determine what a property is worth and the seller either sells or doesn't sell to them. One's property is only worth what a qualified buyer will pay for it on the open market. I have been tracking the local real estate market very closely for the past 12 months in order to ensure that I am current on what is happening in the market. Compiling data from the MLS on new listings and pending listings by month and then entering that data into graph form, one can see very clearly what is happening in our area. Data derived from the NNEREN MLS:


The light blue bars indicate new listings. Except for the holiday months of Nov and Dec, one can see that the trend has been growing inventory month by month. Inventory is what drives the prices upward or downward. It's all about supply and demand. The darker blue bars are pending sales. Those numbers have remained pretty constant over the past year. What doe this mean? The buyers are out there and they are buying property. The problem is that there is so much inventory to choose from. When there are more properties coming on the market than are going off, prices have to go down.

Historically, times of "crisis" in real estate have turned out to be fabulous times of opportunity for buyers. There are some incredible deals to be had out there right now and I am hoping to get in on a few of them myself. I guess you might say that this buyer has perceived the value. Don't miss out because you might be kicking yourself 5 years from now, saying "Jeez, I should have bought in 07 when the prices were hitting rock bottom."

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Absence

Wow, where I have been all this time? It's been over a year since I first had the inkling that I wanted to begin blogging about Real Estate in NH. Although my intentions were good, at the time, I was teaching full time in the evenings and practicing real estate full time the rest of my free hours. Now that I have put teaching on the back burner, I have been able to recommit myself to just working on real estate and boy have I been busy. I know that all I read about and all that I hear about from others, is "The market is terrible." However, I have had my most productive year thus far and I wasn't even selling when the market was "good". I have been talking to my husband about taking the course and getting in on the action, because I really need his help.

All of this has required me to work some pretty long days and basically going 7 days a week right now. It will all pay off in the end, though. I like the analogy that Brian Tracy provides on one of his motivational sales audio discs: It goes something like this but I paraphrase of course.....

"Becoming successful in any sales field is very much like flying an airplane. Before you can fly the plane, you have to begin by taxiing down the tarmac. Once in position, you have to really rev the engines and give the engine full throttle in order to gather enough speed to become airborne. The throttle must remain wide open with the engines roaring in order to attain proper altitude and speed. Once aloft however, you can cut back on the engines and allow the plane to cruise and sometimes glide because of all the power used at the take off. Just like in sales when first starting out, you have to give it all you have so that like the airplane you can achieve that cruising altitude of contacts, prospects and referrals.

I am loving this business and for the most part have had the opportunity to meet some great people with whom I have been able to develop very good friendships. I will write about some of those encounters here as well as what is currently going on in our local market.

Despite all of the doom and gloom that you hear, this is a very opportunistic market for investors. Property is most likely very near the bottom of the tub and if not at the bottom, then it is definitely circling the drain. More and more of my clients are investors, who sense it as well and are positioned to begin buying up real estate again. Every day, just in our area, there are 2-3 new bank owned properties new to the market. One person's misfortune can be another's gold mine.