Monday, October 29, 2007

How to sell your home in a depreciating market

Yes, it's official. It's been a "buyer's" market since late 2005. How do we know we are in a depreciating market? Well, besides hearing it all over the media and learning from friends and colleagues that they have not been able to sell their homes, there is a more accurate way of measuring what the market is doing.

By tracking inventory of homes for sale, one can accurately predict a trend which indicates an appreciating or depreciating market. The determining factor for either of these markets is INVENTORY. When there are three consecutive months with more homes coming on the market than going off, it is a depreciating market and prices have to come down. When there are three consecutive months with more homes coming off the market and than coming on, it is an appreciating market and prices have to go up. It's all about supply and demand. It's the supply that controls the demand and not the demand that controls the supply.

How did we get into this situation anyway? There are numerous contributing factors, but at some point, inventory hit a "tipping point", where new listings began out-pacing sold listings. We certainly couldn't expect 10-12 % yearly appreciation in real estate forever, could we? What does a person do with an asset that is losing value? They unload it. What does a person do with an asset that is gaining in value? They hold onto it. With news everywhere we turn telling us over and over about the "bubble", inventory sitting longer and longer on the market while new listings are constantly joining them and the correct perception among property owners that their most important asset is losing value or about to lose value, more and more homeowners figured they would cash out now rather than face getting less for their homes later on. Problem is...those sellers just assumed that they could still get the inflated price that their home would have commanded two years ago and they were prepared to sit tight until they got that price.

In an appreciating market, it's ok to price your home slightly higher than "market value" and then just wait because eventually market prices do catch up to that price. However, in a depreciating market with so much competition out there, pricing your property above market value can be the death nail. Why? The longer one's property sits unsold in a depreciating market the more value it loses. Sellers are told by their agents to lower the price but they always seem to be one step behind the market slide and the property becomes "stale".

A real estate professional should know exactly what the market is doing. He or she must be aware of all factors that may adversely affect the sale of property. An excellent real estate agent should not tell you what your home is worth but rather help you find out what your property is worth. So, that is all well and good, but exactly how is this done?

In my next blog, I will explain step by step how to create the energy and excitement to drive buyer traffic through your property and to help create the perception of value necessary in order to lead to one or more offers from the interested parties. Myself and two of my colleagues will be offering a class in our office at 601 Central Ave in Dover, NH on Nov 7th from 7-8pm to attempt to educate the public on the process as well. It is a bold move as no one else in real estate in this area besides our company has agents willing to tell their sellers the truth about the market and what they need to do to sell their home now and for full price plus 10%. Stay tuned.

Friday, October 19, 2007

There aren't any buyers out there!

This common expression can be heard day after day in many local real estate offices including ours. "I need some buyers to work with" "Do you have any buyers?" "Where are all the buyers?" In "good markets", there is the perception that there are lots of buyers out there and conversely, in "bad markets", the perception is that there are no or few buyers in the market.

My real estate company, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, owned by NRT, Inc, has been pro-active enough to offer training to all its agents on the most effective approach in a depreciating market. This seminar was presented by Jay Schweppe who owned his own company in Montclair, NJ and sold to NRT. He made lots of money selling in down markets as well as up markets using the approach that he presents in his seminars. Many agents will say that this particular approach would not work in their area, but the fact is that this method works in every market in every location without fail.

The reality is that the "Buyer Pool" remains relatively constant in all markets. The variable is whether or not the buyers are perceiving value. When there is a perception of value, buyers act. Without this perception, buyers will wait. They are still buyers but not prepared to act until someone creates that perception. Of course, interest rates can alter the size of the buyer pool somewhat, and job losses can shift the buyer pool from one area of the country to another. Often times, buyer pools will shift to areas of the country where real estate is deemed a value causing that particular local market to appreciate. In actuality, almost anyone could be a potential buyer at any time.

If I stood on a very busy street corner with my newer MacBook and shouted out or held a sign up asking anyone to give me $1,000 for my laptop, chances are, I would not have any interested parties because most would know full well that they could buy a brand new one for just slightly over my asking price. There would be no perception of value amongst those buyers. However, if I stood on the same corner with the same MacBook and asked if there were someone willing to give me $100 for my fully functional laptop, chances are that several if not many people would step up to buy. When there is more than one interested buyer, that interest and perception of value, will cause those buyers to increase their offer up to a certain point (what they feel it is truly worth).

The same is true for real estate. Buyers determine what a property is worth and the seller either sells or doesn't sell to them. One's property is only worth what a qualified buyer will pay for it on the open market. I have been tracking the local real estate market very closely for the past 12 months in order to ensure that I am current on what is happening in the market. Compiling data from the MLS on new listings and pending listings by month and then entering that data into graph form, one can see very clearly what is happening in our area. Data derived from the NNEREN MLS:


The light blue bars indicate new listings. Except for the holiday months of Nov and Dec, one can see that the trend has been growing inventory month by month. Inventory is what drives the prices upward or downward. It's all about supply and demand. The darker blue bars are pending sales. Those numbers have remained pretty constant over the past year. What doe this mean? The buyers are out there and they are buying property. The problem is that there is so much inventory to choose from. When there are more properties coming on the market than are going off, prices have to go down.

Historically, times of "crisis" in real estate have turned out to be fabulous times of opportunity for buyers. There are some incredible deals to be had out there right now and I am hoping to get in on a few of them myself. I guess you might say that this buyer has perceived the value. Don't miss out because you might be kicking yourself 5 years from now, saying "Jeez, I should have bought in 07 when the prices were hitting rock bottom."

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Absence

Wow, where I have been all this time? It's been over a year since I first had the inkling that I wanted to begin blogging about Real Estate in NH. Although my intentions were good, at the time, I was teaching full time in the evenings and practicing real estate full time the rest of my free hours. Now that I have put teaching on the back burner, I have been able to recommit myself to just working on real estate and boy have I been busy. I know that all I read about and all that I hear about from others, is "The market is terrible." However, I have had my most productive year thus far and I wasn't even selling when the market was "good". I have been talking to my husband about taking the course and getting in on the action, because I really need his help.

All of this has required me to work some pretty long days and basically going 7 days a week right now. It will all pay off in the end, though. I like the analogy that Brian Tracy provides on one of his motivational sales audio discs: It goes something like this but I paraphrase of course.....

"Becoming successful in any sales field is very much like flying an airplane. Before you can fly the plane, you have to begin by taxiing down the tarmac. Once in position, you have to really rev the engines and give the engine full throttle in order to gather enough speed to become airborne. The throttle must remain wide open with the engines roaring in order to attain proper altitude and speed. Once aloft however, you can cut back on the engines and allow the plane to cruise and sometimes glide because of all the power used at the take off. Just like in sales when first starting out, you have to give it all you have so that like the airplane you can achieve that cruising altitude of contacts, prospects and referrals.

I am loving this business and for the most part have had the opportunity to meet some great people with whom I have been able to develop very good friendships. I will write about some of those encounters here as well as what is currently going on in our local market.

Despite all of the doom and gloom that you hear, this is a very opportunistic market for investors. Property is most likely very near the bottom of the tub and if not at the bottom, then it is definitely circling the drain. More and more of my clients are investors, who sense it as well and are positioned to begin buying up real estate again. Every day, just in our area, there are 2-3 new bank owned properties new to the market. One person's misfortune can be another's gold mine.

Thursday, June 15, 2006

What's different about NH?

We've been here in New Hampshire for a week and a day visiting with Betty and her family, having a good time. Coming from Key West, as we do, we're finding the nights to be cool, bordering on cold.

We drove to Tilton, New Hampshire today to visit a relative of Janet's employer Katha Sheehan, the Key West Chicken Lady. Glenna, the Chicken Lady's aunt, and her husband Walter are both in their 80's. They were very gracious toward us, sharing the information they have about Katha's father and his ancestors. Glenna suffers from the onset of Alzheimer's, but she was a trouper and managed to give us some useful information. We're sure that Katha will be excited when she sees what we've found.

It's Bike Week in Laconia this week, and Tilton is in the vicinity of Laconia. We saw many bikes and bikers all through the area, all apparently enjoying a fine (but cool) New England day.

Key West, as you might or might not know, is an island that is two miles wide by four miles long. We rarely have any reason to leave the island, and when we do it's most often to travel only a short way away. When we come 'home' to New England, it always strikes me that going somewhere involves a lot more driving than we are used to, and seems to take a very long time. We went to Lowell, MA yesterday to do some genealogical digging on Katha's behalf. 65 miles. Tilton today, 45 miles. Tomorrow I'll go to littleton, MA to spend the day with my Mom; 77 miles.

I think I miss my bicycle.

Saturday, June 10, 2006

Resolution

I received news on Thursday that there was some resolution to the situation with Daisy and her home. Daisy went to the title company on Thursday to pick up her check for the sale of her home. The amount was minus the agreed upon expenses between her and the snake. She has two weeks after picking up her check to move out of her home.

The attorney helping Daisy out was relaying information to her through me because last week Daisy did not even have enough money to pay her phone bill and it was turned off. Daisy would go to the library daily to get any email news I would send her. The attorney told me on Wednesday evening to tell Daisy to go to the title company on Thursday, sign a tax transfer declaration form, obtain a copy of it, and pick up her check. He wanted to emphasize that she will see an amount on the tax transfer declaration that she did not get for the sale of her house, however she was to sign it or she would not receive her check. After she had her money, he intends to go after the snake with Daisy but didn't want to jeopardize her situation any further.

I spoke with Daisy after she got her check. You could hear the relief in her voice. She told me that she had not slept in several nights worrying about this whole debacle and once she had her check she felt so much better. Her phone was turned back on as she went around town paying miscellaneous bills and she began re-making plans to move. Her closing on the home in our area is Monday and soon she will be able to put all of this behind her.

Saturday, June 03, 2006

Over the river and through the woods.....

Tomorrow evening I will finally be visiting my grandmother in celebration of her 88th birthday. My Grammy (my Dad's Mom) moved back to her home of New England with the assistance of two of her children after many years in Florida and the past couple of years in New Mexico. She went to New Mexico to be with one of her sons and his wife who took excellent care of her. But, Grammy began to suffer from increasingly poor health and the family concensus was that she would be better off closer to three of her other children who live in Massachusetts. Grammy always said after she moved to Florida that she would not want to ever live in New England again because she hated the cold but I am sure she is pleased to be so near her family now.

She lives with Aunt Betty now and receives frequent visits from her many children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren who live in this area. I am one of many grandchildren and for a multitude of reasons, I have not been down to Mass to see her since she came back.

Tomorrow is the perfect occasion to go being her birthday and all. Many of my extended family will be there as well so it will be nice to see them too. Grammy loves chocolate covered cherries and as long as they are allowed on her medical regimen, I am sure she will enjoy the box I will be bringing.

Grammy has slowed down quite a bit in the past few years but I feel very fortunate to say that I have many wonderful memories from my childhood of Sunday dinners at Grammy and Grampy's with all the Aunts and Uncles and Cousins present. Dinner was always followed by a grand game of cards and once I was old enough, I was allowed to join in as well. It really is a shame that my children have not been able to experience the same kind of family visits that I had as a child. Our family just isn't as large as Grammy's and those we do have live so far away. I'll just to have to continue to pass on the stories from those days so my kids will know how it once was.

RAIN

After a splendid Memorial Day weekend, we had a steamy week with temps hitting the 90's and the past two days it's done nothing but rain. Temperatures have hovered in the low 50's. It has been raw and cool; days for which New England is famous. This type of weather lends itself to few activities save movie watching, fire building and internet surfing. We natives here know well that if you don't like the weather, just wait because it changes so frequently. Thank goodness the Red Sox are on the road because at least they haven't been rained out.

Friday, June 02, 2006

Controversy

Upon arriving at the office this morning, I quickly got filled in on a controversy brewing. Apparently one of our agents was meeting with her sellers last evening when they told her that their neighbors told them something disturbing. Their neighbors have their home listed with another agent in another agency and the two neighbors are very good friends. The neighbors with the other agency said that their agent told them that our company consistently underprices homes and that we are solely responsible for the downturn in the Dover market. If this was not so serious, it might be funny. First of all, anyone with any sense understands that the real estate market is a commodity market and is driven strictly by supply and demand. When inventories build, prices have to go down and currently inventories are building. If her statement even had a shred of truth to it, then our company with its "low prices" would be responsible for dwindling inventories since our homes would sell so quickly. The problem is that it is agents who overprice homes who are partially responsible for growing inventories. Buyers buy when there is a perception of value and sellers sell when buyers buy, plain and simple.

The other problem with her comment is that it is highly unethical to speak disparagingly of another agency and its business practices and this is according to the NH Association of Realtors Code of Ethics.

Our broker has been out of town for the week so a call was placed to his boss who is the manager for all the Maine and NH offices. I heard from reliable sources that he, in turn, placed a call to the other agent's broker informing her of her agents comments. It will be interesting to see what the fallout from this incident is, if any at all.

Thursday, June 01, 2006

Lull Day

Today seems to be somewhat of a "lull day". Meaning that nothing much is happening or pressing at the moment but that could all change in a matter of minutes. I got to the office this morning just after 9am and began checking the email, making some phone calls and getting paperwork faxed that needs to be faxed. I have two deals pending closing in early June and I am hoping to get another buyer that I am working with into a house before June is done.

It's nice to see that my Dad has chimed in on my blog with his two cents. Even though he sometimes writes about Key West issues which are of little interest to me (politics and such), I always enjoy reading when he writes about the more mundane items such as canary eggs and bicycle thefts.

I have been working on a particular deal which has completely taxed my burgeoning real estate career. I met a buyer that I'll call Daisy through an internet lead back in March. She was looking to buy a small house or double wide mobile home to downsize in her older years. We established contact, assessed needs and began looking. As we got to know each other better, we signed a buyer-agency agreement which means that I am working for her and she is my client. We hit it off very well and enjoyed each other's company while looking at houses. She explained to me that she had lost her husband nearly a year ago to cancer and had the family home under agreement in the western part of the state. It was set to close April 1st so she felt comfortable looking for a place and making an offer once she found something she liked. She would be a cash buyer and not require financing due to the proceeds she would get from the sale of her home. Daisy found the perfect place, made an offer, it was accepted and she was on her way to moving closer to her daughter and simplifying her life.

All was going very smoothly until the closing day for her current home came and went. She was told by the man who made the deal with her that it would be just a couple days. He had a myriad of excuses for her to hold her off. Several days went by and still no closing; she had now missed a deadline for a second deposit on the home she hoped to purchase with her proceeds.

In the meantime, I asked if I could speak to this man buying her house. He called me and went on and on with exucses while he hadn't closed yet, but bottom line was that he could not give me a definite day. I had to keep in close contact with the agent for the seller and explain the situation to her. Tell her that Daisy still wanted the house but was being stonewalled by this
wheeler-dealer man. I began probing further as did the agents for the sellers. As it turns out, Daisy told me that back in October this man had her come into his attorney's office and sign over the deed to him "so he could pay the taxes" for her. Daisy assumed it was all on the up and up since it was being done in an attorney's office in front of a notary. Daisy never received any monies at that time nor has she up to date.

I asked Daisy how she met this "shark". She explained that back in the fall just a few months after her husband's death, she went to a car dealership to attempt to sell one of her cars so she would have enough money to pay the property taxes. This is where she met "the man". He told her that he was a real estate agent and could easily find a "buyer" for her house and he would pay her taxes and she could live there as long as she needed to until she was ready to move. He also promised to make repairs to the home in anticipation of selling it.

The agent for the seller looked up the deed for Daisy's property and found that it had been drawn up back in October but registered just two weeks ago. Amazingly, it now said that Daisy had sold her property to a Garret Brock, who she did not know and to whom she had never signed her property over. She had signed it over to "the man" back in October. The "man" had offered to pay Daisy 250K for her home and sold it to Garret for $325K according to the tax transfer stamps on the deed.

Meanwhile, an attorney working for the seller's agency called me after he got wind of the situation. I had been keeping the seller's agent updated all along. He introduced himself to me and said that he smelled a rat and it sounded like an elderly lady was being taken advantage of and that " got his Irish up". He offered to help and asked me if he could speak to my client Daisy. Daisy agreed to call him to discuss her situation and he has been handling things since then.

It now looks like Daisy will get her money for the sale of her home. The details are being worked out by the attorney and she may be able to finally move on like she had intended. There were other improprieties in this situation such as "the man" not really being a real estate agent yet portraying himself as one, the deed possibly being forged from the original one Daisy signed to the one recorded which indicates she sold the house to this Garret person.

I spent two nights with very fitful sleep thinking about Daisy and what was happening to her . It made me very upset and anxious to think about this "man" taking advantage of an older woman in a difficult situation. I am very thankful that people did step forward and do the necessary to help Daisy finally get her money and allow her to move on as she wanted. It's not completely resolved yet but hopefully by week's end we will have the answer that we hope for.

This whole scenario just points out what can happen when one attempts to sell or buy real estate on their own. Without the backing of a reputable company, one is at great risk for being taken advantage of by "sharks" or not completing the transaction correctly. According to the National Association of REALTORS, people selling by owner typically net 16% less than if they sold with a REALTOR. Most for sale by owners (FSBO) sell on their own in order to save the commission, however at 16% less they are losing the 6% comission plus an additional 10%. Daisy sold for 250K when the home was actually worth 325K but if she had been represented by a REALTOR she would have netted 305K even after the 6% commission.

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Like father, like ....

Like father, like ... daughter. I'm pleased to discover that I have been an inspiration to our "older" daughter, still our little girl, even though a grown woman.

She writes that this blog will be about her home, New Hampshire, a state that we also called home for 19 years. Betty and her sister Susan went through the Salem, NH school system from first grade through high school, and both attended college in New Hampshire as well.

We live in Key West, FL now, refugees from the ice and snow, but we still say that we go "home" to visit family in New England. We moved to Salem in April of 1966 when Betty was 2-1/2 and a few months before her sister Susan was born. We left in 1984 as Susan was beginning her studies at Plymouth State College.

As Betty says, I've been writing a web log about Key West I began it in 2002, as we were getting ready to leave the island for the first time. We moved here in 1999, January, stayed until May of 2002, then moved back to New Hampshire again and remained there until May of 2004 when we returned here for a second turn at Key West.

We have many fond memories of our time in New Hampshire (mostly between May and November), and some not so fond memories of things like blizzards, freezing temps, and occasional floods in the basement of our first home on Millville Street.

We'll try to take a lead from Betty here and to offer another perspective on the things she wants to write about. So have it it Betty. I'll jump in whenever it seems right to do so.

Closing Day

The end of the month typically signifies multiple closings and today is no exception. I arrived at the office around noon today and there is a closing going on in our conference room. People generally close on the sale of a home at the end of the month in order to avoid additional costs associated with getting into the next month. I believe that there are several other closings scheduled for today at our office. It is a very stressful time for all involved. The agents, the sellers and the buyers. Much can go wrong at a closing and unless all parties have well-prepared and avoided any snafus, the deal could still fall through right up until the closing. The best thing about a successful closing is that the parties involved are generally pleased with the results. The agents get paid for their hard work, the sellers get their monies for the sale of their home and the buyers get the home that they have dreamed about. It can be a very rewarding experience for the agents involved, especially to see their clients' smiles after it is over.

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Welcome Aboard!


For some time now, I have had the pleasure of following my father's blogging efforts in Key West and have enjoyed keeping up on his comings and goings through his writings. I wanted to give it a try myself so this is my foray into the blogging world. I'll begin by mentioning a little about myself and what I do currently. I am a licensed real estate agent in the state of New Hampshire, but that is not what I have always done. For a long time, I have been a registered nurse but needed a change, hence the real estate career. I am married to Lee and have two children, Amanda (17) and Cameron (15). I also have a stepson, Greg who is 29; but he lives in Pennsylvania.

I think that my work in real estate may make for some interesting readings not to mention the years spent in nursing in the emergency department. But mostly, I intend to write about New Hampshire, my state, my home.